Observatory

Three simulated BTC trading bots with different strategies. No real money. Every decision is recorded and open to inspect.

Environment

Market: BTC/USD, 60-minute candles
Source: Kraken public OHLC (REST, no API key)
Candles: 730 stored, 680 evaluated
Range: 06/09/2026 19:00 UTC to 05/10/2026 02:00 UTC
Costs: 0.10% per side, slippage 0.05%
Starting capital: 10,000 simulated USD per bot
Rules: version 1
Head hash: cbd5a96509f07bdf74fe816e3da1e7cc441f0d18e431a33ceaef1d830a92142f

Checking data freshness…

BTC/USD price

87,15475,417

4 Sept 20265 Oct 2026

Last close 86,595.80 USD at 05/10 02:00 UTC.

Manta ray

Nekton

Momentum / breakout

Position: Long since price 85,265

05/10 02:00 UTC, Hold. Close 86,596 still above the trailing stop 85,979.

Simulated figures in USD, fees and slippage included.

Equity: 10,047.52
Return: +0.48%
Max drawdown: −3.38%
Realised: −25.34
Unrealised: +72.86
Fees paid: 183.64
Trades: 37 fills, 6 of 18 profitable
Time in market: 42%

Rules and parameters

Enters when price breaks out of its 20-candle range on a wide candle. Exits when price turns back through a trailing stop.

Lookback range:: 20 closed candles
Entry rule:: candle range > 1.5 × ATR(14), in breakout direction
Exit:: trailing stop 2 × ATR from best close
Max exposure:: 50%
Costs:: 0.10% fee + 0.05% slippage per side

Jellyfish

Plankton

Random exploration (seeded)

Position: Flat

05/10 02:00 UTC, Wait. Random roll 0.118 above entry chance 0.05.

Simulated figures in USD, fees and slippage included.

Equity: 9,926.65
Return: −0.73%
Max drawdown: −0.73%
Realised: −73.35
Unrealised: none
Fees paid: 39.12
Trades: 54 fills, 9 of 27 profitable
Time in market: 39%

Rules and parameters

The control. Direction and position size come from a seeded random generator. Are the other two strategies really better than chance?

Seed:: 20261004
Entry chance per candle:: 5%
Exit chance per candle:: 10%
Position size:: 2% to 10% of equity
Costs:: 0.10% fee + 0.05% slippage per side

Plankton journal

Sea turtle

Benthos

Mean reversion

Position: Short since price 85,775

05/10 02:00 UTC, Hold. Z-score +2.88, not yet back to 0.

Simulated figures in USD, fees and slippage included.

Equity: 9,884.94
Return: −1.15%
Max drawdown: −2.91%
Realised: −83.61
Unrealised: −31.45
Fees paid: 86.73
Trades: 29 fills, 8 of 14 profitable
Time in market: 55%

Rules and parameters

Enters when price strays far from its average. Exits when price returns to the average.

Moving average:: 50 candles
Entry rule:: z-score outside ±2
Exit:: z-score back to 0
Max exposure:: 30%
Costs:: 0.10% fee + 0.05% slippage per side

Benthos journal

Performance (simulated)

Return since 6 Sept 2026, fees and slippage included. The dashed line is a buy-and-hold benchmark using all capital.

+8.9%−5.8%

6 Sept 20265 Oct 2026

Nekton +0.48%
Plankton −0.73%
Benthos −1.15%
Buy and hold +8.16%